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Burnley vs Everton — Premier League 2026

Burnley
Burnley
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Everton
Everton
M. Cornet 85'
J. Rodriguez 57'
N. Collins 12'
Richarlison 41' (pen), 18' (pen)
4/6/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Burnley33%
×Draw25%
Everton43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.33
Everton
1.55

Everton creates 17% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 23 away

creates per match

Burnley
0.96
Everton
1.16

allows per match

Burnley
1.94
Everton
1.70

finishing

Burnley-0.06on par
Everton-0.07on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Everton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
57%
Burnley or Everton
75%
Draw or Everton
67%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
14%
Everton wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
74%
Burnley 2+ goals
38%
Burnley 3+ goals
15%
Everton 1+ goals
79%
Everton 2+ goals
46%
Everton 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
43%
Everton (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.94 · 20 matches

Everton away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 0.96 + Everton defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.33

Everton attack 1.16 + Burnley defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Burnley scores more
33%
level
25%
Everton scores more
43%

Everton at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
RicharlisonEvertonEverton · F
9.7

Match Events

3'
Mason Holgate
10'
Josh Brownhill
12'
N. Collins↳ M. Cornet
18'
RicharlisonPenalty
40'
Vitaliy MykolenkoPenalty awarded
41'
RicharlisonPenalty
54'
Ben Godfrey
57'
J. Rodriguez↳ C. Taylor
72'
M. Lowton← C. Roberts
72'
D. Gray← A. Gordon
76'
Matthew Lowton
80'
M. Vydra← W. Weghorst
84'
D. McNeil← A. Lennon
85'
M. Cornet↳ M. Vydra
87'
S. Rondón← M. Holgate

Possession

51%Burnley

Shots

13Burnley

Pass accuracy

51%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyEverton
Overview
51%Possession49%
13Total Shots16
9Corners6
11Fouls16
Shots
13Total Shots16
4On Target4
6Off Target4
3Blocked8
10Inside Box12
3Outside Box4
Passing
51%Possession49%
337Total Passes324
221Accurate Passes206
66%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Premier League: Burnley 3–2 Everton

Burnley beat Everton 3-2 in Premier League on April 6, 2022.

Goals: N. Collins (12'), Richarlison (18' pen, 41' pen), J. Rodriguez (57'), M. Cornet (85').

Burnley controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 16.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.