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Burnley vs Everton — Premier League 2026

Burnley
Burnley
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Everton
Everton
12/27/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Burnley33%
×Draw25%
Everton42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.33
Everton
1.52

Everton creates 14% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 26 away

creates per match

Burnley
0.96
Everton
1.09

allows per match

Burnley
1.94
Everton
1.70

finishing

Burnley-0.06on par
Everton-0.05on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Everton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
58%
Burnley or Everton
75%
Draw or Everton
67%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
15%
Everton wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
74%
Burnley 2+ goals
38%
Burnley 3+ goals
15%
Everton 1+ goals
78%
Everton 2+ goals
45%
Everton 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
44%
Everton (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.94 · 20 matches

Everton away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.70 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 0.96 + Everton defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.33

Everton attack 1.09 + Burnley defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Burnley scores more
33%
level
25%
Everton scores more
42%

Everton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
Florentino← J. Cullen
69'
M. Rohl← C. Alcaraz
70'
T. Barry← Beto
73'
J. Anthony← J. Bruun Larsen
80'
Tim Iroegbunam
86'
Tyler Dibling
88'
M. Tresor Ndayishimiye← M. Edwards
88'
Z. Flemming← A. Broja
88'
N. Patterson← T. Dibling

Possession

54%Burnley

Shots

16Burnley

Pass accuracy

50%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyEverton
Overview
54%Possession46%
16Total Shots15
1.41Expected Goals (xG)0.82
6Corners5
8Fouls8
Shots
16Total Shots15
0On Target6
9Off Target6
7Blocked3
9Inside Box10
7Outside Box5
Passing
54%Possession46%
466Total Passes394
359Accurate Passes307
77%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
6Saves0
0.00Goals Prevented0.00
Discipline
8Fouls8
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides3

Premier League: Burnley 0–0 Everton

Burnley and Everton drew 0-0 in Premier League on December 27, 2025.

Burnley controlled possession (54%) and registered 16 shots to 15.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.