Everton 3–1 Burnley: Result & Stats

Everton

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Burnley

R. Lukaku 74'

B. Mee 71' (OG)

P. Jagielka 49'

S. Vokes 52' (pen)

4/15/2017

Premier League · Round 33Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Everton53%

×Draw24%

Burnley23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EvertonExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.04

Everton

1.69

Burnley

1.04

Everton creates 63% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 21 away

1.28

creates per match

0.79

1.29

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Everton

1.28

Burnley

0.79

allows per match

Everton

1.29

Burnley

2.10

-0.07on par

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

Everton-0.07on par

Burnley+0.40scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Everton or draw

77%

Everton or Burnley

76%

Draw or Burnley

47%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+

28%

Burnley wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals

82%

Everton 2+ goals

50%

Everton 3+ goals

24%

Burnley 1+ goals

65%

Burnley 2+ goals

28%

Burnley 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)

69%

Burnley (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.28 + Burnley defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.69

Burnley attack 0.79 + Everton defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Everton scores more

53%

level

24%

Burnley scores more

23%

Everton at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

R. Barkley

Everton · F

8.1

Match Events

29'

Idrissa Gueye

46'

E. Valencia← I. Gueye

49'

P. Jagielka↳ A. Williams

52'

S. VokesPenalty

71'

B. MeeOwn goal

72'

Ross Barkley

74'

A. Gray← S. Vokes

74'

R. Lukaku↳ L. Baines

76'

G. Barry← K. Mirallas

83'

D. Agyei← A. Barnes

86'

A. Westwood← J. Hendrick

90'

A. Lookman← R. Barkley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonBurnley

Overview

63%Possession37%

29Total Shots13

6Corners7

15Fouls14

Shots

29Total Shots13

7On Target6

9Off Target4

13Blocked3

17Inside Box7

13Outside Box6

Passing

63%Possession37%

529Total Passes301

446Accurate Passes197

84%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls14

2Yellow Cards0

3Offsides0