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Everton de Vina vs Palestino — Primera División 2018

Everton de Vina
Everton de Vina
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Palestino
Palestino
3/23/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 1Estadio Sausalito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Everton de Vina39%
×Draw28%
Palestino33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Everton de Vina
1.26
Palestino
1.13

Everton de Vina creates 12% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 127 away

creates per match

Everton de Vina
1.16
Palestino
1.22

allows per match

Everton de Vina
1.03
Palestino
1.36

finishing

Everton de Vina+0.00on par
Palestino+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton de Vina ↓

Palestino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Everton de Vina or draw
67%
Everton de Vina or Palestino
72%
Draw or Palestino
61%

Winning margin

Everton de Vina wins by 2+
17%
Palestino wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Everton de Vina 1+ goals
72%
Everton de Vina 2+ goals
36%
Everton de Vina 3+ goals
13%
Palestino 1+ goals
68%
Palestino 2+ goals
31%
Palestino 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)
54%
Palestino (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton de Vina at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 128 matches

Palestino away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.36 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton de Vina attack 1.16 + Palestino defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.26

Palestino attack 1.22 + Everton de Vina defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Everton de Vina scores more
39%
level
28%
Palestino scores more
33%

Everton de Vina at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Everton de Vina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Everton de Vina 0–0 Palestino

Everton de Vina and Palestino drew 0-0 in Primera División on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Sausalito in Viña del Mar.