Everton de Vina 1–2 Deportes Limache

Everton de Vina

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Deportes Limache

B. Martinez 3'

J. Montecinos 32'

Ramon Martinez 21'

3/31/2026

Copa De La Liga · Group Stage - 3Estadio Sausalito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Everton de Vina32%

×Draw23%

Deportes Limache45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Everton de VinaExpected goals in this matchDeportes Limache

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.83

Everton de Vina

1.50

Deportes Limache

1.83

Deportes Limache creates 22% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

1.67

2.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Everton de Vina

1.33

Deportes Limache

1.67

allows per match

Everton de Vina

2.00

Deportes Limache

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Everton de Vina+0.00on par

Deportes Limache+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton de Vina ↓

Deportes Limache →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Everton de Vina or draw

55%

Everton de Vina or Deportes Limache

77%

Draw or Deportes Limache

68%

Winning margin

Everton de Vina wins by 2+

15%

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Everton de Vina 1+ goals

78%

Everton de Vina 2+ goals

44%

Everton de Vina 3+ goals

19%

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

84%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

54%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)

41%

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton de Vina at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Deportes Limache away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton de Vina attack 1.33 + Deportes Limache defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Deportes Limache attack 1.67 + Everton de Vina defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Everton de Vina scores more

32%

level

23%

Deportes Limache scores more

45%

Deportes Limache at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

B. Martinez

21'

Ramon Martinez

32'

J. Montecinos

48'

52'

77'

90+5'

90+6'

Everton

Deportes

Manager: Davis Gonzalez

Manager: Victor Rivero