Deportes Limache 1–1 Everton de Vina

Deportes Limache

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Everton de Vina

N. Da Silva 90'

N. Baeza 15'

2/16/2025

Primera División · Round 1Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Deportes Limache57%

×Draw23%

Everton de Vina20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes LimacheExpected goals in this matchEverton de Vina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.97

Deportes Limache

1.81

Everton de Vina

0.97

Deportes Limache creates 87% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

2.01

creates per match

0.97

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Deportes Limache

2.01

Everton de Vina

0.97

allows per match

Deportes Limache

0.97

Everton de Vina

1.61

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Deportes Limache-0.31scores less

Everton de Vina-0.06on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Limache ↓

Everton de Vina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Deportes Limache or draw

80%

Deportes Limache or Everton de Vina

77%

Draw or Everton de Vina

43%

Winning margin

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

33%

Everton de Vina wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

84%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

54%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

27%

Everton de Vina 1+ goals

62%

Everton de Vina 2+ goals

25%

Everton de Vina 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

74%

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Limache at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.97 · 10 matches

Everton de Vina away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.61 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Limache attack 2.01 + Everton de Vina defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.81

Everton de Vina attack 0.97 + Deportes Limache defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Deportes Limache scores more

57%

level

23%

Everton de Vina scores more

20%

Deportes Limache at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

F. Fritz

Deportes Limache · D

7.9

Match Events

9'

Hugo Magallanes

15'

N. Baeza↳ Diego Hernandez

29'

G. Pacheco← B. Torrealba

42'

Misael Llantén

45+1'

Diego Hernández

46'

M. Sandoval← Y. W. Andia Leon

50'

Mario Sandoval

62'

J. Ovalle← D. Catalan

62'

H. Salgado← A. Jara

73'

J. Delgado← R. Rebolledo

73'

M. Guzman← Diego Hernandez

75'

Ignacio González

78'

P. Charpentier← G. Alvarez

88'

D. Garcia← R. Pineiro

90+4'

Martín Guzmán

90+1'

M. Campos← A. Medina

90+1'

E. C. Serje Orozco← J. Moya

90'

N. Da Silva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportesEverton

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots13

1.78Expected Goals (xG)1.30

5Corners3

10Fouls16

Shots

17Total Shots13

5On Target3

6Off Target8

6Blocked2

10Inside Box10

7Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

528Total Passes383

446Accurate Passes316

84%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina

Deportes Limache and Everton de Vina drew 1-1 in Primera División on February 16, 2025.

Goals: N. Baeza (15'), N. Da Silva (90').

Deportes Limache controlled possession (58%) and registered 17 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza in Limache.

Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina