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Everton de Vina vs Deportes Copiapo — Primera División 2018

Everton de Vina
Everton de Vina
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportes Copiapo
Deportes Copiapo
5/18/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 13Estadio Sausalito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Everton de Vina52%
×Draw26%
Deportes Copiapo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Everton de Vina
1.54
Deportes Copiapo
0.92

Everton de Vina creates 67% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 30 away

creates per match

Everton de Vina
1.16
Deportes Copiapo
0.80

allows per match

Everton de Vina
1.03
Deportes Copiapo
1.93

finishing

Everton de Vina+0.00on par
Deportes Copiapo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton de Vina ↓

Deportes Copiapo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Everton de Vina or draw
77%
Everton de Vina or Deportes Copiapo
74%
Draw or Deportes Copiapo
48%

Winning margin

Everton de Vina wins by 2+
27%
Deportes Copiapo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Everton de Vina 1+ goals
79%
Everton de Vina 2+ goals
45%
Everton de Vina 3+ goals
20%
Deportes Copiapo 1+ goals
60%
Deportes Copiapo 2+ goals
23%
Deportes Copiapo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)
70%
Deportes Copiapo (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton de Vina at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 128 matches

Deportes Copiapo away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton de Vina attack 1.16 + Deportes Copiapo defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.54

Deportes Copiapo attack 0.80 + Everton de Vina defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Everton de Vina scores more
52%
level
26%
Deportes Copiapo scores more
23%

Everton de Vina at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Everton de Vina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Everton de Vina 1–0 Deportes Copiapo

Everton de Vina beat Deportes Copiapo 1-0 in Primera División on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Sausalito in Viña del Mar.