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Deportes Copiapo vs Everton de Vina — Primera División 2018

Deportes Copiapo
Deportes Copiapo
FT
3 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Everton de Vina
Everton de Vina
10/20/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 28Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportes Copiapo40%
×Draw25%
Everton de Vina35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Copiapo
1.50
Everton de Vina
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 127 away

creates per match

Deportes Copiapo
1.60
Everton de Vina
1.17

allows per match

Deportes Copiapo
1.60
Everton de Vina
1.41

finishing

Deportes Copiapo+0.00on par
Everton de Vina+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Copiapo ↓

Everton de Vina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Deportes Copiapo or draw
65%
Deportes Copiapo or Everton de Vina
75%
Draw or Everton de Vina
60%

Winning margin

Deportes Copiapo wins by 2+
19%
Everton de Vina wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Deportes Copiapo 1+ goals
78%
Deportes Copiapo 2+ goals
44%
Deportes Copiapo 3+ goals
19%
Everton de Vina 1+ goals
75%
Everton de Vina 2+ goals
40%
Everton de Vina 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Deportes Copiapo (draw refunded)
53%
Everton de Vina (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Copiapo at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

Everton de Vina away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.41 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Copiapo attack 1.60 + Everton de Vina defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.50

Everton de Vina attack 1.17 + Deportes Copiapo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportes Copiapo scores more
40%
level
25%
Everton de Vina scores more
35%

Deportes Copiapo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportes Copiapo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Deportes Copiapo 3–5 Everton de Vina

Everton de Vina beat Deportes Copiapo 5-3 in Primera División on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla in Copiapó.