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Everton de Vina vs Curico Unido — Primera División 2018

Everton de Vina
Everton de Vina
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Curico Unido
Curico Unido
3/5/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 5Estadio Sausalito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Everton de Vina44%
×Draw27%
Curico Unido28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Everton de Vina
1.35
Curico Unido
1.02

Everton de Vina creates 32% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 91 away

creates per match

Everton de Vina
1.16
Curico Unido
1.02

allows per match

Everton de Vina
1.03
Curico Unido
1.55

finishing

Everton de Vina+0.00on par
Curico Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton de Vina ↓

Curico Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Everton de Vina or draw
72%
Everton de Vina or Curico Unido
73%
Draw or Curico Unido
56%

Winning margin

Everton de Vina wins by 2+
21%
Curico Unido wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Everton de Vina 1+ goals
74%
Everton de Vina 2+ goals
39%
Everton de Vina 3+ goals
15%
Curico Unido 1+ goals
64%
Curico Unido 2+ goals
27%
Curico Unido 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)
61%
Curico Unido (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton de Vina at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 128 matches

Curico Unido away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.55 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton de Vina attack 1.16 + Curico Unido defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.35

Curico Unido attack 1.02 + Everton de Vina defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Everton de Vina scores more
44%
level
27%
Curico Unido scores more
28%

Everton de Vina at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Everton de Vina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Everton de Vina 1–1 Curico Unido

Everton de Vina and Curico Unido drew 1-1 in Primera División on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Sausalito in Viña del Mar.