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Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina — Primera División 2018

Curico Unido
Curico Unido
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Everton de Vina
Everton de Vina
4/29/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 12Estadio Bicentenario La Granja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Curico Unido41%
×Draw26%
Everton de Vina33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Curico Unido
1.45
Everton de Vina
1.27

Curico Unido creates 14% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 127 away

creates per match

Curico Unido
1.49
Everton de Vina
1.17

allows per match

Curico Unido
1.36
Everton de Vina
1.41

finishing

Curico Unido+0.00on par
Everton de Vina+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curico Unido ↓

Everton de Vina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Curico Unido or draw
67%
Curico Unido or Everton de Vina
74%
Draw or Everton de Vina
59%

Winning margin

Curico Unido wins by 2+
20%
Everton de Vina wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Curico Unido 1+ goals
77%
Curico Unido 2+ goals
42%
Curico Unido 3+ goals
18%
Everton de Vina 1+ goals
72%
Everton de Vina 2+ goals
36%
Everton de Vina 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Curico Unido (draw refunded)
56%
Everton de Vina (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curico Unido at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.36 · 89 matches

Everton de Vina away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.41 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curico Unido attack 1.49 + Everton de Vina defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.45

Everton de Vina attack 1.17 + Curico Unido defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Curico Unido scores more
41%
level
26%
Everton de Vina scores more
33%

Curico Unido at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Curico Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Curico Unido 2–3 Everton de Vina

Everton de Vina beat Curico Unido 3-2 in Primera División on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja in Curicó.