Everton de Vina 1–1 A. Italiano: Result & Stats

Everton de Vina

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

A. Italiano

C. Palacios 74'

L. Palacios 53'

6/1/2025

Primera División · Round 13Estadio Sausalito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Everton de Vina43%

×Draw26%

A. Italiano31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Everton de VinaExpected goals in this matchA. Italiano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.18

Everton de Vina

1.44

A. Italiano

1.18

Everton de Vina creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.57

creates per match

1.29

1.06

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Everton de Vina

1.57

A. Italiano

1.29

allows per match

Everton de Vina

1.06

A. Italiano

1.30

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Everton de Vina-0.28scores less

A. Italiano-0.09on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton de Vina ↓

A. Italiano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Everton de Vina or draw

69%

Everton de Vina or A. Italiano

74%

Draw or A. Italiano

57%

Winning margin

Everton de Vina wins by 2+

21%

A. Italiano wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Everton de Vina 1+ goals

76%

Everton de Vina 2+ goals

42%

Everton de Vina 3+ goals

18%

A. Italiano 1+ goals

69%

A. Italiano 2+ goals

33%

A. Italiano 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)

58%

A. Italiano (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton de Vina at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 7 matches

A. Italiano away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton de Vina attack 1.57 + A. Italiano defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.44

A. Italiano attack 1.29 + Everton de Vina defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Everton de Vina scores more

43%

level

26%

A. Italiano scores more

31%

Everton de Vina at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Everton de Vina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Medina

Everton de Vina · M

8.0

Match Events

46'

P. Guajardo← O. J. Rojas Munoz

53'

L. Palacios

64'

L. Palacios

69'

I. Ramirez← M. Campos

69'

C. Palacios← J. Moya

70'

M. Guzman← A. Ibacache

70'

D. Pina← M. Fuentes

70'

A. Gonzalez← L. Palacios

74'

C. Palacios↳ M. Guzman

81'

F. Troyansky← M. Collao

84'

N. Orellana

85'

M. Jimenez← N. Orellana

90+1'

J. Espejo

90+1'

L. Soto

90+7'

I. Ramirez

90+4'

J. Delgado← E. M. Ramos Aviles

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonA.

Overview

67%Possession33%

18Total Shots9

4Corners3

7Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots9

3On Target4

10Off Target4

5Blocked1

12Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

520Total Passes258

420Accurate Passes162

81%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2