A. Italiano 2–0 Everton de Vina: Result & Stats

A. Italiano

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Everton de Vina

E. Matus 90'

L. Riveros 87'

11/21/2025

Primera División · Round 28Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

A. Italiano41%

×Draw25%

Everton de Vina34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

A. ItalianoExpected goals in this matchEverton de Vina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.31

A. Italiano

1.47

Everton de Vina

1.31

A. Italiano creates 12% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.32

creates per match

0.97

1.65

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

A. Italiano

1.32

Everton de Vina

0.97

allows per match

A. Italiano

1.65

Everton de Vina

1.61

+0.56scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

A. Italiano+0.56scores more

Everton de Vina-0.06on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

A. Italiano ↓

Everton de Vina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

A. Italiano or draw

66%

A. Italiano or Everton de Vina

75%

Draw or Everton de Vina

59%

Winning margin

A. Italiano wins by 2+

20%

Everton de Vina wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

A. Italiano 1+ goals

77%

A. Italiano 2+ goals

43%

A. Italiano 3+ goals

18%

Everton de Vina 1+ goals

73%

Everton de Vina 2+ goals

38%

Everton de Vina 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

A. Italiano (draw refunded)

55%

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

A. Italiano at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.65 · 8 matches

Everton de Vina away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.61 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

A. Italiano attack 1.32 + Everton de Vina defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.47

Everton de Vina attack 0.97 + A. Italiano defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

A. Italiano scores more

41%

level

25%

Everton de Vina scores more

34%

A. Italiano at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "A. Italiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

T. Ahumada

A. Italiano · G

8.2

Match Events

33'

Hugo Magallanes

51'

O. J. Rojas Munoz← G. Gil Romero

63'

M. Jimenez← L. Palacios

63'

L. Riveros← P. Guajardo

65'

C. Palacios← N. Baeza

69'

Alex Ibacache

71'

Nicolás Orellana

81'

N. Aedo← M. Fuentes

81'

F. Troyansky← Eduardo Vargas

83'

Franco Troyansky

85'

R. Rebolledo← J. Moya

87'

L. Riveros

88'

R. Pineiro← A. Madrid

90+8'

Oliver Rojas

90'

E. Matus↳ N. Aedo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

A.Everton

Overview

59%Possession41%

16Total Shots20

8Corners5

11Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots20

5On Target7

8Off Target6

3Blocked7

7Inside Box12

9Outside Box8

Passing

59%Possession41%

357Total Passes247

293Accurate Passes173

82%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2