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Europa II vs Cornellà — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Europa II
Europa II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cornellà
Cornellà
J. F. Cadenas 71', 32'
Gonzalo 87'
4/26/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 32Camp Municipal de Futbol Nou Sardenya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Europa II34%
×Draw27%
Cornellà39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Europa II
1.19
Cornellà
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 18 away

creates per match

Europa II
1.21
Cornellà
1.11

allows per match

Europa II
1.48
Cornellà
1.17

finishing

Europa II+0.00on par
Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Europa II ↓

Cornellà →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Europa II or draw
61%
Europa II or Cornellà
73%
Draw or Cornellà
66%

Winning margin

Europa II wins by 2+
14%
Cornellà wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Europa II 1+ goals
70%
Europa II 2+ goals
33%
Europa II 3+ goals
12%
Cornellà 1+ goals
72%
Cornellà 2+ goals
37%
Cornellà 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Europa II (draw refunded)
47%
Cornellà (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Europa II at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.48 · 33 matches

Cornellà away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Europa II attack 1.21 + Cornellà defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Cornellà attack 1.11 + Europa II defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Europa II scores more
34%
level
27%
Cornellà scores more
39%

Cornellà at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
J. F. Cadenas
71'
J. F. Cadenas
87'
Gonzalo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Europa II 2–1 Cornellà

Europa II beat Cornellà 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 26, 2026.

Goals: J. F. Cadenas (32', 71'), Gonzalo (87').

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol Nou Sardenya in Barcelona.