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Cornellà vs Europa II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Cornellà
Cornellà
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Europa II
Europa II
L. dos Reis 86'
O. Serrano 11'
M. Angles Sanchez 77'
V. Edo 56'
12/21/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 15Nou Municipal de Cornella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cornellà51%
×Draw23%
Europa II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cornellà
1.77
Europa II
1.17

Cornellà creates 51% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 34 away

creates per match

Cornellà
1.94
Europa II
1.44

allows per match

Cornellà
0.89
Europa II
1.59

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par
Europa II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Europa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw
75%
Cornellà or Europa II
77%
Draw or Europa II
49%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+
28%
Europa II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals
83%
Cornellà 2+ goals
53%
Cornellà 3+ goals
26%
Europa II 1+ goals
69%
Europa II 2+ goals
33%
Europa II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)
67%
Europa II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Europa II away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 1.94 + Europa II defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.77

Europa II attack 1.44 + Cornellà defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cornellà scores more
51%
level
23%
Europa II scores more
25%

Cornellà at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
O. Serrano
56'
V. Edo
77'
M. Angles Sanchez
86'
L. dos Reis
Cornellà
Europa
Lopo
Manager: Lopo
Jonathan Ruiz
Manager: Jonathan Ruiz

Match Recap: Cornellà vs Europa II

Cornellà and Europa II drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 21, 2025.

Goals: O. Serrano (11'), V. Edo (56'), M. Angles Sanchez (77'), L. dos Reis (86').

The match was played at Nou Municipal de Cornella in Cornella de Llobregat.