Europa Fc 1–0 Castelldefels: Result & Stats

Europa Fc

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Castelldefels

Oriol Molins 90+5'

1/8/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 16Camp Municipal de Futbol Nou Sardenya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Europa Fc54%

×Draw25%

Castelldefels21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Europa FcExpected goals in this matchCastelldefels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.92

Europa Fc

1.63

Castelldefels

0.92

Europa Fc creates 77% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 74 away

2.02

creates per match

1.07

0.76

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Europa Fc

2.02

Castelldefels

1.07

allows per match

Europa Fc

0.76

Castelldefels

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Europa Fc+0.00on par

Castelldefels+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Europa Fc ↓

Castelldefels →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Europa Fc or draw

79%

Europa Fc or Castelldefels

75%

Draw or Castelldefels

46%

Winning margin

Europa Fc wins by 2+

29%

Castelldefels wins by 2+

Team goals

Europa Fc 1+ goals

80%

Europa Fc 2+ goals

48%

Europa Fc 3+ goals

22%

Castelldefels 1+ goals

60%

Castelldefels 2+ goals

23%

Castelldefels 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Europa Fc (draw refunded)

72%

Castelldefels (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Europa Fc at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.76 · 42 matches

Castelldefels away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.24 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Europa Fc attack 2.02 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.63

Castelldefels attack 1.07 + Europa Fc defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Europa Fc scores more

54%

level

25%

Castelldefels scores more

21%

Europa Fc at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Europa Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

Ricard Vidal← Kilian Villaverde

65'

Álex Segura← Isaac Padilla

65'

Kevin Díaz← Gerard Pedrol

70'

Prats← Pol Aldabó

77'

Dani Sánchez← Alberto Salamanca

83'

Oriol Molins← Gerard Nolla

83'

Joel Arimany← Arnau Campeny

90+5'

Oriol Molins

Europa

Castelldefels

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Eric Sánchez

33'▲Ricard Vidal←▼Kilian Villaverde

70'▲Prats←▼Pol Aldabó

83'▲Oriol Molins←▼Gerard Nolla

83'▲Joel Arimany←▼Arnau Campeny

Europa Fc substitutes

VidalPratsMolinsArimany

Manager: Miki Carrillo

65'▲Álex Segura←▼Isaac Padilla

65'▲Kevin Díaz←▼Gerard Pedrol

77'▲Dani Sánchez←▼Alberto Salamanca

Castelldefels substitutes

SeguraDíazSánchez

Match Recap: Europa Fc vs Castelldefels

Europa Fc beat Castelldefels 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 8, 2023.

Goals: Oriol Molins (90+5').

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol Nou Sardenya in Barcelona.

Europa Fc vs Castelldefels — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Europa Fc vs Castelldefels