Castelldefels 0–4 Europa Fc: Result & Stats

Castelldefels

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Europa Fc

3/7/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 19Estadio Els Canyars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Castelldefels27%

×Draw27%

Europa Fc46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastelldefelsExpected goals in this matchEuropa Fc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.40

Castelldefels

1.02

Europa Fc

1.40

Europa Fc creates 37% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 42 away

1.03

creates per match

1.55

1.24

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Castelldefels

1.03

Europa Fc

1.55

allows per match

Castelldefels

1.24

Europa Fc

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castelldefels+0.00on par

Europa Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castelldefels ↓

Europa Fc →

0–09%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Castelldefels or draw

54%

Castelldefels or Europa Fc

73%

Draw or Europa Fc

73%

Winning margin

Castelldefels wins by 2+

10%

Europa Fc wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Castelldefels 1+ goals

64%

Castelldefels 2+ goals

27%

Castelldefels 3+ goals

Europa Fc 1+ goals

75%

Europa Fc 2+ goals

41%

Europa Fc 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Castelldefels (draw refunded)

38%

Europa Fc (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castelldefels at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

Europa Fc away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.02 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castelldefels attack 1.03 + Europa Fc defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Europa Fc attack 1.55 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Castelldefels scores more

27%

level

27%

Europa Fc scores more

46%

Europa Fc at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Europa Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff