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Etzella Ettelbruck vs Blue Boys Muhlenbach — National Division 2018

Etzella Ettelbruck
Etzella Ettelbruck
CANC
00:00
Blue Boys Muhlenbach
Blue Boys Muhlenbach
4/5/2020National DivisionNational Division · Round 20Centre Sportif du Deich (Ettelbréck (Ettelbrück))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Etzella Ettelbruck55%
×Draw21%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etzella Ettelbruck
2.06
Blue Boys Muhlenbach
1.30

Etzella Ettelbruck creates 58% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 7 away

creates per match

Etzella Ettelbruck
1.12
Blue Boys Muhlenbach
0.86

allows per match

Etzella Ettelbruck
1.74
Blue Boys Muhlenbach
3.00

finishing

Etzella Ettelbruck+0.00on par
Blue Boys Muhlenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etzella Ettelbruck ↓

Blue Boys Muhlenbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Etzella Ettelbruck or draw
76%
Etzella Ettelbruck or Blue Boys Muhlenbach
79%
Draw or Blue Boys Muhlenbach
45%

Winning margin

Etzella Ettelbruck wins by 2+
33%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Etzella Ettelbruck 1+ goals
87%
Etzella Ettelbruck 2+ goals
61%
Etzella Ettelbruck 3+ goals
34%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach 1+ goals
73%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach 2+ goals
37%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Etzella Ettelbruck (draw refunded)
70%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etzella Ettelbruck at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 66 matches

Blue Boys Muhlenbach away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etzella Ettelbruck attack 1.12 + Blue Boys Muhlenbach defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.06

Blue Boys Muhlenbach attack 0.86 + Etzella Ettelbruck defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Etzella Ettelbruck scores more
55%
level
21%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach scores more
24%

Etzella Ettelbruck at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Etzella Ettelbruck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Etzella Ettelbruck vs Blue Boys Muhlenbach — Match Preview

Etzella Ettelbruck face Blue Boys Muhlenbach on April 5, 2020 in this National Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Etzella Ettelbruck host Blue Boys Muhlenbach at Centre Sportif du Deich (Ettelbréck (Ettelbrück)).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.