Blue Boys Muhlenbach 1–1 Etzella Ettelbruck

Blue Boys Muhlenbach

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Etzella Ettelbruck

F. Bop 82'

S. Kalisa 28'

10/6/2019

National Division · Round 8Stade Mathias Mamer (Luxembourg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Blue Boys Muhlenbach43%

×Draw23%

Etzella Ettelbruck34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blue Boys MuhlenbachExpected goals in this matchEtzella Ettelbruck

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.50

Blue Boys Muhlenbach

1.73

Etzella Ettelbruck

1.50

Blue Boys Muhlenbach creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 65 away

1.14

creates per match

1.28

1.71

allows per match

2.32

creates per match

Blue Boys Muhlenbach

1.14

Etzella Ettelbruck

1.28

allows per match

Blue Boys Muhlenbach

1.71

Etzella Ettelbruck

2.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blue Boys Muhlenbach+0.00on par

Etzella Ettelbruck+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blue Boys Muhlenbach ↓

Etzella Ettelbruck →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Blue Boys Muhlenbach or draw

66%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach or Etzella Ettelbruck

77%

Draw or Etzella Ettelbruck

57%

Winning margin

Blue Boys Muhlenbach wins by 2+

23%

Etzella Ettelbruck wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Blue Boys Muhlenbach 1+ goals

82%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach 2+ goals

52%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach 3+ goals

25%

Etzella Ettelbruck 1+ goals

78%

Etzella Ettelbruck 2+ goals

44%

Etzella Ettelbruck 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Blue Boys Muhlenbach (draw refunded)

56%

Etzella Ettelbruck (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blue Boys Muhlenbach at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Etzella Ettelbruck away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.32 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blue Boys Muhlenbach attack 1.14 + Etzella Ettelbruck defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.73

Etzella Ettelbruck attack 1.28 + Blue Boys Muhlenbach defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Blue Boys Muhlenbach scores more

43%

level

23%

Etzella Ettelbruck scores more

34%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Blue Boys Muhlenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

A. Mahamat← J. Hodzic

28'

S. Kalisa

70'

Munir Dragulovcanin← R. Diomisio

72'

R. De Sousa← Diogo Pimentel

78'

Bruno Ramírez← S. Kalisa

82'

F. Bop

Blue

Etzella

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: F. Buyse

23'▲A. Mahamat←▼J. Hodzic

70'▲Munir Dragulovcanin←▼R. Diomisio

Blue Boys Muhlenbach substitutes

MahamatDragulovcanin

Manager: N. Pattison

72'▲R. De Sousa←▼Diogo Pimentel

78'▲Bruno Ramírez←▼S. Kalisa

Etzella Ettelbruck substitutes

SousaRamírez