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Étoiles Mandé vs Djoliba — Première Division 2019

Étoiles Mandé
Étoiles Mandé
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Djoliba
Djoliba
12/3/2024Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 2Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Étoiles Mandé15%
×Draw27%
Djoliba58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Étoiles Mandé
0.58
Djoliba
1.42

Djoliba creates 145% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 95 away

creates per match

Étoiles Mandé
0.62
Djoliba
1.39

allows per match

Étoiles Mandé
1.46
Djoliba
0.54

finishing

Étoiles Mandé+0.00on par
Djoliba+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Étoiles Mandé ↓

Djoliba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–119%
0–214%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Étoiles Mandé or draw
42%
Étoiles Mandé or Djoliba
73%
Draw or Djoliba
85%

Winning margin

Étoiles Mandé wins by 2+
4%
Djoliba wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Étoiles Mandé 1+ goals
44%
Étoiles Mandé 2+ goals
12%
Étoiles Mandé 3+ goals
2%
Djoliba 1+ goals
76%
Djoliba 2+ goals
41%
Djoliba 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Étoiles Mandé (draw refunded)
21%
Djoliba (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Étoiles Mandé at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Djoliba away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.54 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Étoiles Mandé attack 0.62 + Djoliba defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.58

Djoliba attack 1.39 + Étoiles Mandé defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Étoiles Mandé scores more
15%
level
27%
Djoliba scores more
58%

Djoliba at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Djoliba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Étoiles Mandé vs Djoliba

Djoliba beat Étoiles Mandé 2-1 in Première Division on December 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Konaté in Bamako.