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Djoliba vs Étoiles Mandé — Première Division 2019

Djoliba
Djoliba
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Étoiles Mandé
Étoiles Mandé
3/16/2025Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 15Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Djoliba60%
×Draw25%
Étoiles Mandé15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djoliba
1.56
Étoiles Mandé
0.63

Djoliba creates 148% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 13 away

creates per match

Djoliba
1.57
Étoiles Mandé
0.77

allows per match

Djoliba
0.49
Étoiles Mandé
1.54

finishing

Djoliba+0.00on par
Étoiles Mandé+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djoliba ↓

Étoiles Mandé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Djoliba or draw
85%
Djoliba or Étoiles Mandé
75%
Draw or Étoiles Mandé
40%

Winning margin

Djoliba wins by 2+
32%
Étoiles Mandé wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Djoliba 1+ goals
79%
Djoliba 2+ goals
46%
Djoliba 3+ goals
21%
Étoiles Mandé 1+ goals
47%
Étoiles Mandé 2+ goals
13%
Étoiles Mandé 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Djoliba (draw refunded)
80%
Étoiles Mandé (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djoliba at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.49 · 97 matches

Étoiles Mandé away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djoliba attack 1.57 + Étoiles Mandé defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.56

Étoiles Mandé attack 0.77 + Djoliba defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Djoliba scores more
60%
level
25%
Étoiles Mandé scores more
15%

Djoliba at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Djoliba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djoliba vs Étoiles Mandé

Djoliba beat Étoiles Mandé 2-0 in Première Division on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Konaté in Bamako.