Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Étoiles Mandé vs Bougouni — Première Division 2019

Étoiles Mandé
Étoiles Mandé
FT
2 – 0
Bougouni
Bougouni
5/9/2025Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 21Stade Centre Salif Keita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Étoiles Mandé37%
×Draw30%
Bougouni33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Étoiles Mandé
1.10
Bougouni
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 76 away

creates per match

Étoiles Mandé
0.62
Bougouni
0.57

allows per match

Étoiles Mandé
1.46
Bougouni
1.58

finishing

Étoiles Mandé+0.00on par
Bougouni+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Étoiles Mandé ↓

Bougouni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Étoiles Mandé or draw
67%
Étoiles Mandé or Bougouni
70%
Draw or Bougouni
63%

Winning margin

Étoiles Mandé wins by 2+
15%
Bougouni wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Étoiles Mandé 1+ goals
67%
Étoiles Mandé 2+ goals
30%
Étoiles Mandé 3+ goals
10%
Bougouni 1+ goals
64%
Bougouni 2+ goals
27%
Bougouni 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Étoiles Mandé (draw refunded)
53%
Bougouni (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Étoiles Mandé at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Bougouni away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.58 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Étoiles Mandé attack 0.62 + Bougouni defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.10

Bougouni attack 0.57 + Étoiles Mandé defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Étoiles Mandé scores more
37%
level
30%
Bougouni scores more
33%

Étoiles Mandé at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Étoiles Mandé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Étoiles Mandé 2–0 Bougouni

Étoiles Mandé beat Bougouni 2-0 in Première Division on May 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Centre Salif Keita in Bamako.