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Bougouni vs Étoiles Mandé — Première Division 2019

Bougouni
Bougouni
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Étoiles Mandé
Étoiles Mandé
1/16/2025Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 8Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bougouni45%
×Draw29%
Étoiles Mandé26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bougouni
1.27
Étoiles Mandé
0.89

Bougouni creates 43% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bougouni
1.01
Étoiles Mandé
0.77

allows per match

Bougouni
1.01
Étoiles Mandé
1.54

finishing

Bougouni+0.00on par
Étoiles Mandé+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bougouni ↓

Étoiles Mandé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bougouni or draw
74%
Bougouni or Étoiles Mandé
71%
Draw or Étoiles Mandé
55%

Winning margin

Bougouni wins by 2+
21%
Étoiles Mandé wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bougouni 1+ goals
72%
Bougouni 2+ goals
36%
Bougouni 3+ goals
14%
Étoiles Mandé 1+ goals
59%
Étoiles Mandé 2+ goals
22%
Étoiles Mandé 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bougouni (draw refunded)
63%
Étoiles Mandé (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bougouni at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

Étoiles Mandé away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bougouni attack 1.01 + Étoiles Mandé defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Étoiles Mandé attack 0.77 + Bougouni defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bougouni scores more
45%
level
29%
Étoiles Mandé scores more
26%

Bougouni at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bougouni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bougouni vs Étoiles Mandé

Étoiles Mandé beat Bougouni 3-2 in Première Division on January 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Konaté in Bamako.