Étoiles Mandé 0–2 Bakaridjan: Result & Stats

Étoiles Mandé

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bakaridjan

1/22/2025

Première Division · Round 9Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Étoiles Mandé22%

×Draw30%

Bakaridjan48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Étoiles MandéExpected goals in this matchBakaridjan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.74

1.23

Étoiles Mandé

0.74

Bakaridjan

1.23

Bakaridjan creates 66% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 93 away

0.62

creates per match

1.00

1.46

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Étoiles Mandé

0.62

Bakaridjan

1.00

allows per match

Étoiles Mandé

1.46

Bakaridjan

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Étoiles Mandé+0.00on par

Bakaridjan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Étoiles Mandé ↓

Bakaridjan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–117%

0–211%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Étoiles Mandé or draw

52%

Étoiles Mandé or Bakaridjan

70%

Draw or Bakaridjan

78%

Winning margin

Étoiles Mandé wins by 2+

7%

Bakaridjan wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Étoiles Mandé 1+ goals

52%

Étoiles Mandé 2+ goals

17%

Étoiles Mandé 3+ goals

4%

Bakaridjan 1+ goals

71%

Bakaridjan 2+ goals

35%

Bakaridjan 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Étoiles Mandé (draw refunded)

32%

Bakaridjan (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Étoiles Mandé at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Bakaridjan away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Étoiles Mandé attack 0.62 + Bakaridjan defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.74

Bakaridjan attack 1.00 + Étoiles Mandé defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Étoiles Mandé scores more

22%

level

30%

Bakaridjan scores more

48%

Bakaridjan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bakaridjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff