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Bakaridjan vs Étoiles Mandé — Première Division 2019

Bakaridjan
Bakaridjan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Étoiles Mandé
Étoiles Mandé
Unknown 44'
5/15/2025Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 22Stade Centre Salif Keita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bakaridjan47%
×Draw29%
Étoiles Mandé23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bakaridjan
1.25
Étoiles Mandé
0.79

Bakaridjan creates 58% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bakaridjan
0.96
Étoiles Mandé
0.77

allows per match

Bakaridjan
0.82
Étoiles Mandé
1.54

finishing

Bakaridjan+0.00on par
Étoiles Mandé+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bakaridjan ↓

Étoiles Mandé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bakaridjan or draw
77%
Bakaridjan or Étoiles Mandé
71%
Draw or Étoiles Mandé
53%

Winning margin

Bakaridjan wins by 2+
21%
Étoiles Mandé wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bakaridjan 1+ goals
71%
Bakaridjan 2+ goals
36%
Bakaridjan 3+ goals
13%
Étoiles Mandé 1+ goals
55%
Étoiles Mandé 2+ goals
19%
Étoiles Mandé 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bakaridjan (draw refunded)
67%
Étoiles Mandé (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bakaridjan at home — creates 0.96, concedes 0.82 · 95 matches

Étoiles Mandé away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bakaridjan attack 0.96 + Étoiles Mandé defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.25

Étoiles Mandé attack 0.77 + Bakaridjan defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bakaridjan scores more
47%
level
29%
Étoiles Mandé scores more
23%

Bakaridjan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bakaridjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
79'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bakaridjan vs Étoiles Mandé

Bakaridjan beat Étoiles Mandé 1-0 in Première Division on May 15, 2025.

Goals: ? (44').

The match was played at Stade Centre Salif Keita in Bamako.