Etoile S. Metlaoui 1–0 Stade Tunisien

Etoile S. Metlaoui

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stade Tunisien

Z. ElBakouch 4'

4/26/2015

League #202 · Round 26Stade Municipal de Métlaoui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Etoile S. Metlaoui43%

×Draw32%

Stade Tunisien25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Etoile S. MetlaouiExpected goals in this matchStade Tunisien

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.72

Etoile S. Metlaoui

1.06

Stade Tunisien

0.72

Etoile S. Metlaoui creates 47% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 63 away

1.15

creates per match

0.83

0.62

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Etoile S. Metlaoui

1.15

Stade Tunisien

0.83

allows per match

Etoile S. Metlaoui

0.62

Stade Tunisien

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etoile S. Metlaoui+0.00on par

Stade Tunisien+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile S. Metlaoui ↓

Stade Tunisien →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Etoile S. Metlaoui or draw

75%

Etoile S. Metlaoui or Stade Tunisien

68%

Draw or Stade Tunisien

57%

Winning margin

Etoile S. Metlaoui wins by 2+

17%

Stade Tunisien wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Etoile S. Metlaoui 1+ goals

65%

Etoile S. Metlaoui 2+ goals

29%

Etoile S. Metlaoui 3+ goals

9%

Stade Tunisien 1+ goals

51%

Stade Tunisien 2+ goals

16%

Stade Tunisien 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Etoile S. Metlaoui (draw refunded)

64%

Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile S. Metlaoui at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.62 · 47 matches

Stade Tunisien away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.98 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile S. Metlaoui attack 1.15 + Stade Tunisien defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.06

Stade Tunisien attack 0.83 + Etoile S. Metlaoui defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Etoile S. Metlaoui scores more

43%

level

32%

Stade Tunisien scores more

25%

Etoile S. Metlaoui at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Etoile S. Metlaoui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Z. ElBakouch

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff