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Etoile Filante vs Djeffa — Championnat National 2019

Etoile Filante
Etoile Filante
FT
1 – 0
Djeffa
Djeffa
3/3/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 1Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Etoile Filante33%
×Draw31%
Djeffa36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etoile Filante
0.96
Djeffa
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 58 away

creates per match

Etoile Filante
0.73
Djeffa
0.76

allows per match

Etoile Filante
1.30
Djeffa
1.19

finishing

Etoile Filante+0.00on par
Djeffa+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile Filante ↓

Djeffa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Etoile Filante or draw
64%
Etoile Filante or Djeffa
69%
Draw or Djeffa
67%

Winning margin

Etoile Filante wins by 2+
12%
Djeffa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Etoile Filante 1+ goals
62%
Etoile Filante 2+ goals
25%
Etoile Filante 3+ goals
7%
Djeffa 1+ goals
64%
Djeffa 2+ goals
28%
Djeffa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Etoile Filante (draw refunded)
47%
Djeffa (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile Filante at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Djeffa away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.19 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile Filante attack 0.73 + Djeffa defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.96

Djeffa attack 0.76 + Etoile Filante defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Etoile Filante scores more
33%
level
31%
Djeffa scores more
36%

Djeffa at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Djeffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Etoile Filante 1–0 Djeffa

Etoile Filante beat Djeffa 1-0 in Championnat National on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi in Abomey Calavi.