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Djeffa vs Etoile Filante — Championnat National 2019

Djeffa
Djeffa
FT
0 – 2
Etoile Filante
Etoile Filante
4/17/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 6Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Djeffa45%
×Draw33%
Etoile Filante22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djeffa
1.06
Etoile Filante
0.64

Djeffa creates 66% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 29 away

creates per match

Djeffa
0.80
Etoile Filante
0.52

allows per match

Djeffa
0.75
Etoile Filante
1.31

finishing

Djeffa+0.00on par
Etoile Filante+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djeffa ↓

Etoile Filante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Djeffa or draw
78%
Djeffa or Etoile Filante
67%
Draw or Etoile Filante
55%

Winning margin

Djeffa wins by 2+
18%
Etoile Filante wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Djeffa 1+ goals
65%
Djeffa 2+ goals
29%
Djeffa 3+ goals
9%
Etoile Filante 1+ goals
47%
Etoile Filante 2+ goals
14%
Etoile Filante 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Djeffa (draw refunded)
67%
Etoile Filante (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djeffa at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.75 · 60 matches

Etoile Filante away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djeffa attack 0.80 + Etoile Filante defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.06

Etoile Filante attack 0.52 + Djeffa defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Djeffa scores more
45%
level
33%
Etoile Filante scores more
22%

Djeffa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Djeffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Djeffa 0–2 Etoile Filante

Etoile Filante beat Djeffa 2-0 in Championnat National on April 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa in Cotonou.