Etoile Filante 0–4 Coton Sport Ouidah

Etoile Filante

FT

0 – 4

Coton Sport Ouidah

11/1/2023

Championnat National · Round 3Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Etoile Filante22%

×Draw30%

Coton Sport Ouidah48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Etoile FilanteExpected goals in this matchCoton Sport Ouidah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.73

1.23

Etoile Filante

0.73

Coton Sport Ouidah

1.23

Coton Sport Ouidah creates 68% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 94 away

0.73

creates per match

1.16

1.30

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Etoile Filante

0.73

Coton Sport Ouidah

1.16

allows per match

Etoile Filante

1.30

Coton Sport Ouidah

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etoile Filante+0.00on par

Coton Sport Ouidah+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile Filante ↓

Coton Sport Ouidah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–117%

0–211%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Etoile Filante or draw

52%

Etoile Filante or Coton Sport Ouidah

70%

Draw or Coton Sport Ouidah

78%

Winning margin

Etoile Filante wins by 2+

6%

Coton Sport Ouidah wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Etoile Filante 1+ goals

52%

Etoile Filante 2+ goals

17%

Etoile Filante 3+ goals

4%

Coton Sport Ouidah 1+ goals

71%

Coton Sport Ouidah 2+ goals

35%

Coton Sport Ouidah 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Etoile Filante (draw refunded)

31%

Coton Sport Ouidah (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile Filante at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Coton Sport Ouidah away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.73 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile Filante attack 0.73 + Coton Sport Ouidah defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.73

Coton Sport Ouidah attack 1.16 + Etoile Filante defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Etoile Filante scores more

22%

level

30%

Coton Sport Ouidah scores more

48%

Coton Sport Ouidah at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Coton Sport Ouidah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff