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Coton Sport Ouidah vs Etoile Filante — Championnat National 2019

Coton Sport Ouidah
Coton Sport Ouidah
FT
1 – 0
Etoile Filante
Etoile Filante
12/15/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group B - 12Stade Muncipal de Ouidah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Coton Sport Ouidah57%
×Draw28%
Etoile Filante15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coton Sport Ouidah
1.35
Etoile Filante
0.53

Coton Sport Ouidah creates 155% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 29 away

creates per match

Coton Sport Ouidah
1.40
Etoile Filante
0.52

allows per match

Coton Sport Ouidah
0.54
Etoile Filante
1.31

finishing

Coton Sport Ouidah+0.00on par
Etoile Filante+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coton Sport Ouidah ↓

Etoile Filante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Coton Sport Ouidah or draw
85%
Coton Sport Ouidah or Etoile Filante
72%
Draw or Etoile Filante
43%

Winning margin

Coton Sport Ouidah wins by 2+
28%
Etoile Filante wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Coton Sport Ouidah 1+ goals
74%
Coton Sport Ouidah 2+ goals
39%
Coton Sport Ouidah 3+ goals
15%
Etoile Filante 1+ goals
41%
Etoile Filante 2+ goals
10%
Etoile Filante 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Coton Sport Ouidah (draw refunded)
80%
Etoile Filante (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coton Sport Ouidah at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.54 · 92 matches

Etoile Filante away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coton Sport Ouidah attack 1.40 + Etoile Filante defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Etoile Filante attack 0.52 + Coton Sport Ouidah defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Coton Sport Ouidah scores more
57%
level
28%
Etoile Filante scores more
15%

Coton Sport Ouidah at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Coton Sport Ouidah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coton Sport Ouidah vs Etoile Filante

Coton Sport Ouidah beat Etoile Filante 1-0 in Championnat National on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Muncipal de Ouidah in Ouidah.