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Etoile Filante vs Avrankou Omnisport — Championnat National 2019

Etoile Filante
Etoile Filante
FT
0 – 0
Avrankou Omnisport
Avrankou Omnisport
9/29/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group B - 1Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Etoile Filante40%
×Draw29%
Avrankou Omnisport31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etoile Filante
1.16
Avrankou Omnisport
0.99

Etoile Filante creates 17% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 73 away

creates per match

Etoile Filante
0.73
Avrankou Omnisport
0.67

allows per match

Etoile Filante
1.30
Avrankou Omnisport
1.59

finishing

Etoile Filante+0.00on par
Avrankou Omnisport+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile Filante ↓

Avrankou Omnisport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Etoile Filante or draw
69%
Etoile Filante or Avrankou Omnisport
71%
Draw or Avrankou Omnisport
60%

Winning margin

Etoile Filante wins by 2+
17%
Avrankou Omnisport wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Etoile Filante 1+ goals
69%
Etoile Filante 2+ goals
32%
Etoile Filante 3+ goals
11%
Avrankou Omnisport 1+ goals
63%
Avrankou Omnisport 2+ goals
26%
Avrankou Omnisport 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Etoile Filante (draw refunded)
56%
Avrankou Omnisport (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile Filante at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Avrankou Omnisport away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.59 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile Filante attack 0.73 + Avrankou Omnisport defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.16

Avrankou Omnisport attack 0.67 + Etoile Filante defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Etoile Filante scores more
40%
level
29%
Avrankou Omnisport scores more
31%

Etoile Filante at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Etoile Filante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Etoile Filante vs Avrankou Omnisport

Etoile Filante and Avrankou Omnisport drew 0-0 in Championnat National on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi in Abomey Calavi.