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Avrankou Omnisport vs Etoile Filante — Championnat National 2019

Avrankou Omnisport
Avrankou Omnisport
FT
0 – 0
Etoile Filante
Etoile Filante
3/9/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 2Stade Municipal d'Avrankou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Avrankou Omnisport46%
×Draw30%
Etoile Filante24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avrankou Omnisport
1.20
Etoile Filante
0.79

Avrankou Omnisport creates 52% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 29 away

creates per match

Avrankou Omnisport
1.08
Etoile Filante
0.52

allows per match

Avrankou Omnisport
1.06
Etoile Filante
1.31

finishing

Avrankou Omnisport+0.00on par
Etoile Filante+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avrankou Omnisport ↓

Etoile Filante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Avrankou Omnisport or draw
76%
Avrankou Omnisport or Etoile Filante
70%
Draw or Etoile Filante
54%

Winning margin

Avrankou Omnisport wins by 2+
20%
Etoile Filante wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Avrankou Omnisport 1+ goals
70%
Avrankou Omnisport 2+ goals
34%
Avrankou Omnisport 3+ goals
12%
Etoile Filante 1+ goals
55%
Etoile Filante 2+ goals
19%
Etoile Filante 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Avrankou Omnisport (draw refunded)
65%
Etoile Filante (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avrankou Omnisport at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.06 · 72 matches

Etoile Filante away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avrankou Omnisport attack 1.08 + Etoile Filante defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Etoile Filante attack 0.52 + Avrankou Omnisport defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Avrankou Omnisport scores more
46%
level
30%
Etoile Filante scores more
24%

Avrankou Omnisport at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Avrankou Omnisport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avrankou Omnisport vs Etoile Filante

Avrankou Omnisport and Etoile Filante drew 0-0 in Championnat National on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal d'Avrankou in Avrankou.