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Etoile DU Sahel vs CR Belouizdad — CAF Champions League 2019

Etoile DU Sahel
Etoile DU Sahel
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CR Belouizdad
CR Belouizdad
2/11/2022CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group C - 1Stade Olympique de Radès

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Etoile DU Sahel51%
×Draw28%
CR Belouizdad21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etoile DU Sahel
1.36
CR Belouizdad
0.76

Etoile DU Sahel creates 79% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 26 away

creates per match

Etoile DU Sahel
1.60
CR Belouizdad
0.85

allows per match

Etoile DU Sahel
0.67
CR Belouizdad
1.12

finishing

Etoile DU Sahel+0.00on par
CR Belouizdad+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile DU Sahel ↓

CR Belouizdad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Etoile DU Sahel or draw
79%
Etoile DU Sahel or CR Belouizdad
72%
Draw or CR Belouizdad
49%

Winning margin

Etoile DU Sahel wins by 2+
25%
CR Belouizdad wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Etoile DU Sahel 1+ goals
74%
Etoile DU Sahel 2+ goals
39%
Etoile DU Sahel 3+ goals
16%
CR Belouizdad 1+ goals
53%
CR Belouizdad 2+ goals
18%
CR Belouizdad 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Etoile DU Sahel (draw refunded)
71%
CR Belouizdad (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile DU Sahel at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

CR Belouizdad away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile DU Sahel attack 1.60 + CR Belouizdad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.36

CR Belouizdad attack 0.85 + Etoile DU Sahel defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Etoile DU Sahel scores more
51%
level
28%
CR Belouizdad scores more
21%

Etoile DU Sahel at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Etoile DU Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. MathlouthiEtoile DU SahelEtoile DU Sahel · G
8.5

Match Events

25'
Houssem Eddine Mrezigue
33'
Mokhtar Belkhiter
67'
H. Selmi← M. Bakir
67'
M. Belkhir← K. Bousseliou
70'
A. Wayo← S. Coulibaly
76'
A. Bouras← L. Tabti
84'
A. Soumah← F. Kayramani
84'
O. Abid← M. Baayou
89'
K. Merzougui← K. Aribi

Possession

55%Etoile

Shots

13Etoile

Pass accuracy

51%Etoile

Statistics

EtoileCR
Overview
55%Possession45%
13Total Shots5
2Corners1
21Fouls27
Shots
13Total Shots5
2On Target3
6Off Target2
5Blocked0
6Inside Box4
7Outside Box1
Passing
55%Possession45%
456Total Passes385
344Accurate Passes279
75%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
21Fouls27
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Etoile DU Sahel vs CR Belouizdad

Etoile DU Sahel and CR Belouizdad drew 0-0 in CAF Champions League on February 11, 2022.

Etoile DU Sahel controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Radès in Radès.