CR Belouizdad 2–0 Etoile DU Sahel: Result & Stats

CR Belouizdad

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Etoile DU Sahel

M. Belkhir 18'

M. Bouchar 3'

3/19/2022

CAF Champions League · Group C - 5Stade du 5 Juillet 1962

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

CR Belouizdad57%

×Draw26%

Etoile DU Sahel18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CR BelouizdadExpected goals in this matchEtoile DU Sahel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.74

CR Belouizdad

1.55

Etoile DU Sahel

0.74

CR Belouizdad creates 109% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

1.96

creates per match

0.86

0.63

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

CR Belouizdad

1.96

Etoile DU Sahel

0.86

allows per match

CR Belouizdad

0.63

Etoile DU Sahel

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CR Belouizdad+0.00on par

Etoile DU Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CR Belouizdad ↓

Etoile DU Sahel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CR Belouizdad or draw

82%

CR Belouizdad or Etoile DU Sahel

74%

Draw or Etoile DU Sahel

43%

Winning margin

CR Belouizdad wins by 2+

30%

Etoile DU Sahel wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

CR Belouizdad 1+ goals

79%

CR Belouizdad 2+ goals

46%

CR Belouizdad 3+ goals

20%

Etoile DU Sahel 1+ goals

52%

Etoile DU Sahel 2+ goals

17%

Etoile DU Sahel 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

CR Belouizdad (draw refunded)

76%

Etoile DU Sahel (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CR Belouizdad at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.63 · 27 matches

Etoile DU Sahel away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CR Belouizdad attack 1.96 + Etoile DU Sahel defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.55

Etoile DU Sahel attack 0.86 + CR Belouizdad defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

CR Belouizdad scores more

57%

level

26%

Etoile DU Sahel scores more

18%

CR Belouizdad at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "CR Belouizdad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

M. Bouchar

CR Belouizdad · D

7.9

Match Events

3'

15'

15'

18'

31'

32'

38'

K. Merzougui← K. Aribi

46'

Y. Amri← M. Ben Amor

58'

A. Soumah← M. Dhaoui

66'

Yassine Amri

75'

H. Khalfallah← M. Bakir

75'

B. Tarikat← A. Djarrar

79'

L. Benyoucef← V. Kombe

79'

I. Msakni← A. Soumah

87'

B. Dadache← M. Belkhir

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CREtoile

Overview

50%Possession50%

15Total Shots9

3Corners1

9Fouls19

Shots

15Total Shots9

7On Target2

5Off Target6

3Blocked1

8Inside Box4

7Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

496Total Passes485

399Accurate Passes382

80%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls19

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0