Etoile DU Sahel vs APR — CAF Champions League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 9+ matches
Etoile DU Sahel71%
APR10%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Etoile DU Sahel creates 228% more chances
Season form · 14 home / 9 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Etoile DU Sahel ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Etoile DU Sahel at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches
APR away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.56 · 9 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Etoile DU Sahel attack 1.64 + APR defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.10
APR attack 0.56 + Etoile DU Sahel defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.64
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 71%?"
Etoile DU Sahel at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 71% does not mean "Etoile DU Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
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LioliIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Etoile DU Sahel host APR on Saturday, 23 October 2021 at 13:00. The match is part of the CAF Champions League 2019/2020 season.
CAF Champions League: Etoile DU Sahel 4–0 APR
Etoile DU Sahel beat APR 4-0 in CAF Champions League on October 23, 2021.
Goals: Y. Chikhaoui (18' pen, 47'), M. Dhaoui (90+2' pen), A. Soumah (90+4').
The match was played at Stade Mustapha Ben Jannet in Monastir.