APR vs Etoile DU Sahel — CAF Champions League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 9+ matches
APR43%
Etoile DU Sahel26%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
APR creates 38% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 14 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under69
- Over31
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No62
- Yes38
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
APR ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
APR at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches
Etoile DU Sahel away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
APR attack 1.11 + Etoile DU Sahel defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13
Etoile DU Sahel attack 0.86 + APR defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.82
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
APR at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "APR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
APR substitutes
Head to Head
Mamelodi Sundowns
Pyramids FC
ES Tunis
FAR Rabat
Renaissance Berkane
Stade Malien Bamako
Al Hilal Omdurman
Petro de Luanda
Young Africans
Al Ahly
JS Kabylie
Power Dynamos
Simba
MC Alger
Saint Eloi Lupopo
Orlando Pirates
Rivers United
Vipers
US Monastirienne
Colombe
Stade d'Abidjan
Remo Stars
Al Ahli Tripoli
Nouadhibou
Black Bulls Maputo
Silver Strikers
Ethiopian Medhin
Horoya
Nsingizini Hotspurs
Mogadishu City
ASEC Mimosas
Simba Bhora
Mlandege
Al Hilal
Police
Elgeco Plus
ASAS
Mangasport
Léopards de Dolisié
Aigle Noir
Rahimo
Gaborone United
Al Merreikh
Dadjè
Jaraaf
Jamus
JSK
ASC Kara
Fundacion Bata
Fassell
African Stars
Real de Banjul
Côte d'OrAPR
Wiliete
Zilimadjou
East End Lions
AS-FAN
Cercle de Joachim
Bibiani Gold Stars
Tempête Mocaf
LioliIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
APR host Etoile DU Sahel on Saturday, 16 October 2021 at 13:00. The match is part of the CAF Champions League 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: APR vs Etoile DU Sahel
APR and Etoile DU Sahel drew 1-1 in CAF Champions League on October 16, 2021.
Goals: T. Meziani (3'), D. Manishimwe (40').
The match was played at Stade Régional de Nyamirambo in Kigali.