Etoile DU Sahel 0–1 Al Hilal Omdurman

Etoile DU Sahel

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al Hilal Omdurman

12/28/2019

CAF Champions League · Group Stage - 3Stade Olympique de Radès

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Etoile DU Sahel51%

×Draw28%

Al Hilal Omdurman20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Etoile DU SahelExpected goals in this matchAl Hilal Omdurman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.73

Etoile DU Sahel

1.34

Al Hilal Omdurman

0.73

Etoile DU Sahel creates 84% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 36 away

1.60

creates per match

0.78

0.67

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Etoile DU Sahel

1.60

Al Hilal Omdurman

0.78

allows per match

Etoile DU Sahel

0.67

Al Hilal Omdurman

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etoile DU Sahel+0.00on par

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile DU Sahel ↓

Al Hilal Omdurman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Etoile DU Sahel or draw

80%

Etoile DU Sahel or Al Hilal Omdurman

72%

Draw or Al Hilal Omdurman

49%

Winning margin

Etoile DU Sahel wins by 2+

25%

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Etoile DU Sahel 1+ goals

74%

Etoile DU Sahel 2+ goals

39%

Etoile DU Sahel 3+ goals

15%

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals

52%

Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals

17%

Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Etoile DU Sahel (draw refunded)

72%

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile DU Sahel at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Al Hilal Omdurman away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile DU Sahel attack 1.60 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.34

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 0.78 + Etoile DU Sahel defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Etoile DU Sahel scores more

51%

level

28%

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more

20%

Etoile DU Sahel at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Etoile DU Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff