ES Sahel 1–0 Al Hilal Omdurman: Result & Stats

ES Sahel

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Hilal Omdurman

12/8/2023

CAF Champions League · Group C - 3Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

ES Sahel51%

×Draw28%

Al Hilal Omdurman20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ES SahelExpected goals in this matchAl Hilal Omdurman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.73

ES Sahel

1.34

Al Hilal Omdurman

0.73

ES Sahel creates 84% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 36 away

1.60

creates per match

0.78

0.67

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

ES Sahel

1.60

Al Hilal Omdurman

0.78

allows per match

ES Sahel

0.67

Al Hilal Omdurman

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ES Sahel+0.00on par

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Sahel ↓

Al Hilal Omdurman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

ES Sahel or draw

80%

ES Sahel or Al Hilal Omdurman

72%

Draw or Al Hilal Omdurman

49%

Winning margin

ES Sahel wins by 2+

25%

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

ES Sahel 1+ goals

74%

ES Sahel 2+ goals

39%

ES Sahel 3+ goals

15%

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals

52%

Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals

17%

Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

ES Sahel (draw refunded)

72%

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Sahel at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Al Hilal Omdurman away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Sahel attack 1.60 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.34

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 0.78 + ES Sahel defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

ES Sahel scores more

51%

level

28%

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more

20%

ES Sahel at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "ES Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff