Etoile DU Sahel vs Al Ahly — CAF Champions League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Etoile DU Sahel39%
Al Ahly31%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Etoile DU Sahel creates 16% more chances
Season form · 15 home / 45 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under66
- Over34
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Etoile DU Sahel ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Etoile DU Sahel at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches
Al Ahly away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Etoile DU Sahel attack 1.60 + Al Ahly defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.11
Al Ahly attack 1.24 + Etoile DU Sahel defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Etoile DU Sahel at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Etoile DU Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Mamelodi Sundowns
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ES Tunis
FAR Rabat
Renaissance Berkane
Stade Malien Bamako
Al Hilal Omdurman
Petro de Luanda
Young AfricansAl Ahly
JS Kabylie
Power Dynamos
Simba
MC Alger
Saint Eloi Lupopo
Orlando Pirates
Rivers United
Vipers
US Monastirienne
Colombe
Stade d'Abidjan
Remo Stars
Al Ahli Tripoli
Nouadhibou
Black Bulls Maputo
Silver Strikers
Ethiopian Medhin
Horoya
Nsingizini Hotspurs
Mogadishu City
ASEC Mimosas
Simba Bhora
Mlandege
Al Hilal
Police
Elgeco Plus
ASAS
Mangasport
Léopards de Dolisié
Aigle Noir
Rahimo
Gaborone United
Al Merreikh
Dadjè
Jaraaf
Jamus
JSK
ASC Kara
Fundacion Bata
Fassell
African Stars
Real de Banjul
Côte d'Or
APR
Wiliete
Zilimadjou
East End Lions
AS-FAN
Cercle de Joachim
Bibiani Gold Stars
Tempête Mocaf
LioliIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Etoile DU Sahel host Al Ahly on Friday, 29 November 2019 at 19:00. The match is part of the CAF Champions League 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Etoile DU Sahel vs Al Ahly
Etoile DU Sahel beat Al Ahly 1-0 in CAF Champions League on November 29, 2019.
Goals: Y. Chikhaoui (50').
The match was played at Stade Olympique de Radès in Radès.