Al Ahly 1–0 Etoile DU Sahel: Result & Stats

Al Ahly

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Etoile DU Sahel

Junior Ajayi 32'

1/26/2020

CAF Champions League · Group Stage - 5Al Ahly Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Al Ahly63%

×Draw23%

Etoile DU Sahel14%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al AhlyExpected goals in this matchEtoile DU Sahel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.70

Al Ahly

1.78

Etoile DU Sahel

0.70

Al Ahly creates 154% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 14 away

2.42

creates per match

0.86

0.53

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Al Ahly

2.42

Etoile DU Sahel

0.86

allows per match

Al Ahly

0.53

Etoile DU Sahel

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ahly+0.00on par

Etoile DU Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahly ↓

Etoile DU Sahel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Al Ahly or draw

86%

Al Ahly or Etoile DU Sahel

77%

Draw or Etoile DU Sahel

37%

Winning margin

Al Ahly wins by 2+

37%

Etoile DU Sahel wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Al Ahly 1+ goals

83%

Al Ahly 2+ goals

53%

Al Ahly 3+ goals

26%

Etoile DU Sahel 1+ goals

50%

Etoile DU Sahel 2+ goals

16%

Etoile DU Sahel 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Al Ahly (draw refunded)

82%

Etoile DU Sahel (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahly at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.53 · 45 matches

Etoile DU Sahel away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahly attack 2.42 + Etoile DU Sahel defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.78

Etoile DU Sahel attack 0.86 + Al Ahly defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Al Ahly scores more

63%

level

23%

Etoile DU Sahel scores more

14%

Al Ahly at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Al Ahly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Mohamed El-Shenawy

Al Ahly · G

7.7

Match Events

3'

Mohamed Amine Ben Amor

32'

Junior Ajayi

55'

Kahraba← Ahmed El Sheikh

75'

Walid Soliman← Hussein El Shahat

77'

Hamza Lahmar← Salim Boukhenchouche

77'

Alaya Brigui← Wajdi Kechrida

81'

Marwan Mohsen

83'

Kahraba

90'

Karim Aribi

90'

Aliou Badji← Marwan Mohsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlEtoile

Overview

51%Possession49%

10Total Shots8

6Corners4

26Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots8

4On Target3

5Off Target4

1Blocked1

8Inside Box4

2Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

410Total Passes396

294Accurate Passes271

72%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

26Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4