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Etoile de l'Est vs APR — National Soccer League 2019

Etoile de l'Est
Etoile de l'Est
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
APR
APR
12/22/2021National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 10Ngoma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Etoile de l'Est21%
×Draw29%
APR50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etoile de l'Est
0.74
APR
1.29

APR creates 74% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 94 away

creates per match

Etoile de l'Est
0.83
APR
1.49

allows per match

Etoile de l'Est
1.10
APR
0.66

finishing

Etoile de l'Est+0.00on par
APR+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile de l'Est ↓

APR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–117%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Etoile de l'Est or draw
50%
Etoile de l'Est or APR
71%
Draw or APR
79%

Winning margin

Etoile de l'Est wins by 2+
6%
APR wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Etoile de l'Est 1+ goals
52%
Etoile de l'Est 2+ goals
17%
Etoile de l'Est 3+ goals
4%
APR 1+ goals
72%
APR 2+ goals
37%
APR 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Etoile de l'Est (draw refunded)
30%
APR (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile de l'Est at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

APR away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.66 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile de l'Est attack 0.83 + APR defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.74

APR attack 1.49 + Etoile de l'Est defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Etoile de l'Est scores more
21%
level
29%
APR scores more
50%

APR at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "APR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Etoile de l'Est vs APR

Etoile de l'Est and APR drew 2-2 in National Soccer League on December 22, 2021.

The match was played at Ngoma Stadium in Kibungo.