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APR vs Etoile de l'Est — National Soccer League 2019

APR
APR
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Etoile de l'Est
Etoile de l'Est
3/5/2024National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 18Kigali Pelé Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

APR64%
×Draw23%
Etoile de l'Est13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APR
1.74
Etoile de l'Est
0.64

APR creates 172% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 30 away

creates per match

APR
1.81
Etoile de l'Est
0.70

allows per match

APR
0.58
Etoile de l'Est
1.67

finishing

APR+0.00on par
Etoile de l'Est+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APR ↓

Etoile de l'Est →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

APR or draw
87%
APR or Etoile de l'Est
77%
Draw or Etoile de l'Est
36%

Winning margin

APR wins by 2+
37%
Etoile de l'Est wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

APR 1+ goals
82%
APR 2+ goals
52%
APR 3+ goals
25%
Etoile de l'Est 1+ goals
47%
Etoile de l'Est 2+ goals
14%
Etoile de l'Est 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

APR (draw refunded)
83%
Etoile de l'Est (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APR at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.58 · 97 matches

Etoile de l'Est away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APR attack 1.81 + Etoile de l'Est defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.74

Etoile de l'Est attack 0.70 + APR defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

APR scores more
64%
level
23%
Etoile de l'Est scores more
13%

APR at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "APR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: APR vs Etoile de l'Est

APR beat Etoile de l'Est 1-0 in National Soccer League on March 5, 2024.

The match was played at Kigali Pelé Stadium in Kigali.