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Etoile de Kivu vs Dauphins Noirs — Ligue 1 2019

Etoile de Kivu
Etoile de Kivu
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Dauphins Noirs
Dauphins Noirs
10/5/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 1Stade de la Concorde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Etoile de Kivu43%
×Draw29%
Dauphins Noirs28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etoile de Kivu
1.20
Dauphins Noirs
0.91

Etoile de Kivu creates 32% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 77 away

creates per match

Etoile de Kivu
1.03
Dauphins Noirs
0.78

allows per match

Etoile de Kivu
1.03
Dauphins Noirs
1.36

finishing

Etoile de Kivu+0.00on par
Dauphins Noirs+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile de Kivu ↓

Dauphins Noirs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Etoile de Kivu or draw
72%
Etoile de Kivu or Dauphins Noirs
71%
Draw or Dauphins Noirs
57%

Winning margin

Etoile de Kivu wins by 2+
19%
Dauphins Noirs wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Etoile de Kivu 1+ goals
70%
Etoile de Kivu 2+ goals
34%
Etoile de Kivu 3+ goals
12%
Dauphins Noirs 1+ goals
60%
Dauphins Noirs 2+ goals
23%
Dauphins Noirs 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Etoile de Kivu (draw refunded)
60%
Dauphins Noirs (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile de Kivu at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

Dauphins Noirs away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.36 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile de Kivu attack 1.03 + Dauphins Noirs defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.20

Dauphins Noirs attack 0.78 + Etoile de Kivu defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Etoile de Kivu scores more
43%
level
29%
Dauphins Noirs scores more
28%

Etoile de Kivu at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Etoile de Kivu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Etoile de Kivu vs Dauphins Noirs

Dauphins Noirs beat Etoile de Kivu 3-2 in Ligue 1 on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de la Concorde in Bukavu.