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Dauphins Noirs vs Etoile de Kivu — Ligue 1 2019

Dauphins Noirs
Dauphins Noirs
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Etoile de Kivu
Etoile de Kivu
1/31/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Dauphins Noirs47%
×Draw29%
Etoile de Kivu24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dauphins Noirs
1.26
Etoile de Kivu
0.82

Dauphins Noirs creates 54% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 46 away

creates per match

Dauphins Noirs
1.06
Etoile de Kivu
0.80

allows per match

Dauphins Noirs
0.84
Etoile de Kivu
1.46

finishing

Dauphins Noirs+0.00on par
Etoile de Kivu+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dauphins Noirs ↓

Etoile de Kivu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dauphins Noirs or draw
76%
Dauphins Noirs or Etoile de Kivu
71%
Draw or Etoile de Kivu
53%

Winning margin

Dauphins Noirs wins by 2+
21%
Etoile de Kivu wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dauphins Noirs 1+ goals
72%
Dauphins Noirs 2+ goals
36%
Dauphins Noirs 3+ goals
13%
Etoile de Kivu 1+ goals
56%
Etoile de Kivu 2+ goals
20%
Etoile de Kivu 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dauphins Noirs (draw refunded)
66%
Etoile de Kivu (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dauphins Noirs at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.84 · 69 matches

Etoile de Kivu away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dauphins Noirs attack 1.06 + Etoile de Kivu defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.26

Etoile de Kivu attack 0.80 + Dauphins Noirs defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dauphins Noirs scores more
47%
level
29%
Etoile de Kivu scores more
24%

Dauphins Noirs at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dauphins Noirs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dauphins Noirs vs Etoile de Kivu

Dauphins Noirs beat Etoile de Kivu 3-2 in Ligue 1 on January 31, 2026.