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Étoile Carouge vs Bavois — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Étoile Carouge
Étoile Carouge
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bavois
Bavois
3/4/20231. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 21Stade de la Fontenette

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Étoile Carouge52%
×Draw22%
Bavois26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Étoile Carouge
1.90
Bavois
1.27

Étoile Carouge creates 50% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 105 away

creates per match

Étoile Carouge
2.04
Bavois
1.44

allows per match

Étoile Carouge
1.10
Bavois
1.75

finishing

Étoile Carouge+0.00on par
Bavois+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Étoile Carouge ↓

Bavois →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Étoile Carouge or draw
74%
Étoile Carouge or Bavois
78%
Draw or Bavois
48%

Winning margin

Étoile Carouge wins by 2+
30%
Bavois wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Étoile Carouge 1+ goals
85%
Étoile Carouge 2+ goals
56%
Étoile Carouge 3+ goals
29%
Bavois 1+ goals
72%
Bavois 2+ goals
36%
Bavois 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Étoile Carouge (draw refunded)
67%
Bavois (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Étoile Carouge at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Bavois away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.75 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Étoile Carouge attack 2.04 + Bavois defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.90

Bavois attack 1.44 + Étoile Carouge defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Étoile Carouge scores more
52%
level
22%
Bavois scores more
26%

Étoile Carouge at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Étoile Carouge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Étoile Carouge vs Bavois

Bavois beat Étoile Carouge 2-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de la Fontenette in Carouge.