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Bavois vs Étoile Carouge — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Bavois
Bavois
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Étoile Carouge
Étoile Carouge
8/27/20221. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 4Stade des Peupliers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Bavois37%
×Draw24%
Étoile Carouge39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bavois
1.52
Étoile Carouge
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 70 away

creates per match

Bavois
1.63
Étoile Carouge
1.63

allows per match

Bavois
1.49
Étoile Carouge
1.41

finishing

Bavois+0.00on par
Étoile Carouge+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bavois ↓

Étoile Carouge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bavois or draw
61%
Bavois or Étoile Carouge
76%
Draw or Étoile Carouge
63%

Winning margin

Bavois wins by 2+
18%
Étoile Carouge wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bavois 1+ goals
78%
Bavois 2+ goals
45%
Bavois 3+ goals
20%
Étoile Carouge 1+ goals
79%
Étoile Carouge 2+ goals
46%
Étoile Carouge 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Bavois (draw refunded)
49%
Étoile Carouge (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bavois at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.49 · 104 matches

Étoile Carouge away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bavois attack 1.63 + Étoile Carouge defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Étoile Carouge attack 1.63 + Bavois defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bavois scores more
37%
level
24%
Étoile Carouge scores more
39%

Étoile Carouge at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Étoile Carouge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bavois vs Étoile Carouge

Étoile Carouge beat Bavois 2-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stade des Peupliers in Bavois.