Ethnikos Achna 2–1 Apoel Nicosia: Result & Stats

Ethnikos Achna

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Apoel Nicosia

1/12/2024

1. Division · Round 19Stadio Dasaki Achnas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Ethnikos Achna33%

×Draw27%

Apoel Nicosia40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ethnikos AchnaExpected goals in this matchApoel Nicosia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.35

Ethnikos Achna

1.19

Apoel Nicosia

1.35

Apoel Nicosia creates 13% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 120 away

1.25

creates per match

1.39

1.32

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Ethnikos Achna

1.25

Apoel Nicosia

1.39

allows per match

Ethnikos Achna

1.32

Apoel Nicosia

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par

Apoel Nicosia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethnikos Achna ↓

Apoel Nicosia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ethnikos Achna or draw

60%

Ethnikos Achna or Apoel Nicosia

73%

Draw or Apoel Nicosia

67%

Winning margin

Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+

14%

Apoel Nicosia wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals

70%

Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals

33%

Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals

12%

Apoel Nicosia 1+ goals

74%

Apoel Nicosia 2+ goals

39%

Apoel Nicosia 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)

45%

Apoel Nicosia (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethnikos Achna at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

Apoel Nicosia away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethnikos Achna attack 1.25 + Apoel Nicosia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Apoel Nicosia attack 1.39 + Ethnikos Achna defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ethnikos Achna scores more

33%

level

27%

Apoel Nicosia scores more

40%

Apoel Nicosia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Apoel Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff