Apoel Nicosia 1–3 Ethnikos Achna: Result & Stats

Apoel Nicosia

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Ethnikos Achna

9/1/2024

1. Division · Round 2Neo GSP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Apoel Nicosia56%

×Draw23%

Ethnikos Achna21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Apoel NicosiaExpected goals in this matchEthnikos Achna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.99

Apoel Nicosia

1.77

Ethnikos Achna

0.99

Apoel Nicosia creates 79% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 101 away

1.61

creates per match

1.22

0.76

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Apoel Nicosia

1.61

Ethnikos Achna

1.22

allows per match

Apoel Nicosia

0.76

Ethnikos Achna

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Apoel Nicosia+0.00on par

Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apoel Nicosia ↓

Ethnikos Achna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Apoel Nicosia or draw

79%

Apoel Nicosia or Ethnikos Achna

77%

Draw or Ethnikos Achna

44%

Winning margin

Apoel Nicosia wins by 2+

31%

Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Apoel Nicosia 1+ goals

83%

Apoel Nicosia 2+ goals

53%

Apoel Nicosia 3+ goals

26%

Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals

63%

Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals

26%

Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Apoel Nicosia (draw refunded)

73%

Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apoel Nicosia at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.76 · 119 matches

Ethnikos Achna away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.94 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apoel Nicosia attack 1.61 + Ethnikos Achna defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.77

Ethnikos Achna attack 1.22 + Apoel Nicosia defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Apoel Nicosia scores more

56%

level

23%

Ethnikos Achna scores more

21%

Apoel Nicosia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Apoel Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff