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Ethnikos Achna vs AEK Larnaca — 1. Division 2019

Ethnikos Achna
Ethnikos Achna
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca
12/16/20231. Division1. Division · Round 15Stadio Dasaki Achnas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Ethnikos Achna33%
×Draw27%
AEK Larnaca40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethnikos Achna
1.16
AEK Larnaca
1.31

AEK Larnaca creates 13% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 118 away

creates per match

Ethnikos Achna
1.25
AEK Larnaca
1.29

allows per match

Ethnikos Achna
1.32
AEK Larnaca
1.06

finishing

Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par
AEK Larnaca+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethnikos Achna ↓

AEK Larnaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ethnikos Achna or draw
60%
Ethnikos Achna or AEK Larnaca
73%
Draw or AEK Larnaca
67%

Winning margin

Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+
13%
AEK Larnaca wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals
69%
Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals
32%
Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals
11%
AEK Larnaca 1+ goals
73%
AEK Larnaca 2+ goals
38%
AEK Larnaca 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)
45%
AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethnikos Achna at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

AEK Larnaca away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethnikos Achna attack 1.25 + AEK Larnaca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

AEK Larnaca attack 1.29 + Ethnikos Achna defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ethnikos Achna scores more
33%
level
27%
AEK Larnaca scores more
40%

AEK Larnaca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AEK Larnaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ethnikos Achna vs AEK Larnaca

AEK Larnaca beat Ethnikos Achna 3-0 in 1. Division on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Dasaki Achnas in Dasaki Achnas.