AEK Larnaca 2–2 Ethnikos Achna: Result & Stats

AEK Larnaca

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ethnikos Achna

R. Ofori 63' (OG)

Bruno Gama 54'

P. Lipski 71'

Pablo González 22'

9/22/2024

1. Division · Round 4AEK Arena - George Karapatakis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

AEK Larnaca56%

×Draw23%

Ethnikos Achna21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AEK LarnacaExpected goals in this matchEthnikos Achna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.05

AEK Larnaca

1.84

Ethnikos Achna

1.05

AEK Larnaca creates 75% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 101 away

1.74

creates per match

1.22

0.89

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

AEK Larnaca

1.74

Ethnikos Achna

1.22

allows per match

AEK Larnaca

0.89

Ethnikos Achna

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AEK Larnaca+0.00on par

Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEK Larnaca ↓

Ethnikos Achna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

AEK Larnaca or draw

79%

AEK Larnaca or Ethnikos Achna

77%

Draw or Ethnikos Achna

44%

Winning margin

AEK Larnaca wins by 2+

32%

Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

AEK Larnaca 1+ goals

84%

AEK Larnaca 2+ goals

55%

AEK Larnaca 3+ goals

28%

Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals

65%

Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals

28%

Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)

72%

Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEK Larnaca at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 117 matches

Ethnikos Achna away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.94 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEK Larnaca attack 1.74 + Ethnikos Achna defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.84

Ethnikos Achna attack 1.22 + AEK Larnaca defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

AEK Larnaca scores more

56%

level

23%

Ethnikos Achna scores more

21%

AEK Larnaca at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "AEK Larnaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

22'

26'

41'

45+4'

46'

46'

J. Gnali← Jorge Miramón

53'

E. Lomotey← M. Stylianou

53'

Breno← Pablo González

54'

Bruno Gama

63'

R. OforiOwn goal

68'

A. Sobiech← P. Ioannou

68'

J. Saadi← M. de Iriondo

70'

K. Angielski← E. Cabrera

71'

P. Lipski

85'

M. Rohdén← Pere Pons

85'

M. Pechlivanis← R. Ofori

87'

Breno Almeida

90'

Jalil Saadi

AEK4-2-3-1

Ethnikos3-4-3

11

Bonetto

33

Anderegge

17

⚽

▼

González

37

🥅

▼

Ofori

5

▼

Iriondo

8

⚽

Lipski

22

▼

Ioannou

29

Bahanack

16

Panagioto

28

▼

40

31

22

27

15

89

▼

Miramón

17

▼

Pons

7

Ledes

20

Cantalapi

9

▼

Sol

11

Faraj

30

▼

Cabrera

Manager: H. Berg

46'▲Bruno Gama←▼Fran Sol

46'▲J. Gnali←▼Jorge Miramón

70'▲K. Angielski←▼E. Cabrera

85'▲M. Rohdén←▼Pere Pons

AEK Larnaca substitutes

16Gama93Gnali19Angielski8Rohdén1Alomerović6Jimmy18Chacón23Demetriou24Henriques41Gonzalez44Evripidou51Paraskevas

Manager: David Badia

53'▲E. Lomotey←▼M. Stylianou

53'▲Breno←▼Pablo González

68'▲A. Sobiech←▼P. Ioannou

68'▲J. Saadi←▼M. de Iriondo

85'▲M. Pechlivanis←▼R. Ofori

Ethnikos Achna substitutes

12Lomotey98Breno9Sobiech25Saadi10Pechlivanis1Bogatinov18Dubov19Hernandez20Milinceanu23Venizelou80Angelopoulos93Baret

Match Recap: AEK Larnaca vs Ethnikos Achna

AEK Larnaca and Ethnikos Achna drew 2-2 in 1. Division on September 22, 2024.

Goals: Pablo González (22'), Bruno Gama (54'), R. Ofori (63' o.g.), P. Lipski (71').

The match was played at AEK Arena - George Karapatakis in Larnaca.

AEK Larnaca vs Ethnikos Achna — 1. Division 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: AEK Larnaca vs Ethnikos Achna