Ethnikos Achna 3–1 AE Zakakiou: Result & Stats

Ethnikos Achna

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

AE Zakakiou

10/2/2024

Cup · 1st RoundStadio Dasaki Achnas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ethnikos Achna78%

×Draw14%

AE Zakakiou8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ethnikos AchnaExpected goals in this matchAE Zakakiou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

0.83

Ethnikos Achna

2.83

AE Zakakiou

0.83

Ethnikos Achna creates 241% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Ethnikos Achna

2.00

AE Zakakiou

0.67

allows per match

Ethnikos Achna

1.00

AE Zakakiou

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par

AE Zakakiou+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethnikos Achna ↓

AE Zakakiou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Ethnikos Achna or draw

92%

Ethnikos Achna or AE Zakakiou

86%

Draw or AE Zakakiou

22%

Winning margin

Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+

58%

AE Zakakiou wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals

94%

Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals

77%

Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals

53%

AE Zakakiou 1+ goals

56%

AE Zakakiou 2+ goals

20%

AE Zakakiou 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)

90%

AE Zakakiou (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethnikos Achna at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

AE Zakakiou away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethnikos Achna attack 2.00 + AE Zakakiou defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.83

AE Zakakiou attack 0.67 + Ethnikos Achna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Ethnikos Achna scores more

78%

level

14%

AE Zakakiou scores more

8%

Ethnikos Achna at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Ethnikos Achna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff